Egypt Now: Moving to the Next Level as Protests Continue (Updated)

[This post will be regularly updated: 7:10 am, San Francisco; 5:10 pm, Cairo]

Egypt is ablaze with protesters` passion, from north to east to south, with signs that the streets are no longer in the government`s control, though the regime has not yet deployed the army fully, or, worse, the various special forces at its disposal.

At this point, Alexandria is nearly fully under the protesters` control with very few government officials/police (of any sort) in sight--upwards of 300,000 to 400,000 protesters are roaming the streets. this is confirmed by more than one source as of yet. Protesters there are arresting policy officers, according to a couple of sources! And though this is a bit early, but they are chanting that the regime is down. And this is only in Alexandria--which is the second biggest city in Egypt after Cairo, with nearly 5 million inhabitants.

There`s an extremely tense feel to the regime`s relatively soft-handed response today (considering the range of problematic options available to it). The Egyptian regime does not seem to have deployed it`s fat security (not the mostly "poorly-nutritioned" police officers you see on TV). It seems that some calculus is at play, because to send the special forces into such a scene is to forego ANY return to normalcy and to go full force into the direction of a policy state. Instead, the army is slowly being deployed amid nonsensical calls for a curfew in the major cities. Such calls are laughable considering what one sees with the naked eye on television. More significantly, it reveals a level of desperation on part of the regime. Practically speaking, it also seems to be the prelude to a PLANNED major deployment, which, if things continue to get out of control on the streets, might not happen except sporadically. There are reports in some areas that some protesters are planning to or are indeed going home before dark.

To survey what is happening in ALL provinces of Egypt gives one the impression that, though this is not a revolt organized by institutionalized parties and organizations, it is a thoroughly profound affair. i.e., not likely to stop.

[7:40 am, San Fransisco, 5:40 pm, Cairo]

Protesters and police officers are hugging! and congratulating each other. This is more a function of what was viewed in the Tunisian case, because it happened there ONLY after Ben Ali fled. One can be sure that Mubarak did not flee yet.

[7:45 am, San Fransisco, 5:45 pm, Cairo]

The American administration is "following the situation closely." Really? Thanks. Let`s send one more tax-funded check in the mean time to the Egyptian regime.

[7:55 am, San Fransisco, 5:55 pm, Cairo]

The army is being deployed everywhere as crowds thin out gradually. They are being welcomed by the protesters who view the army to be nationalist symbol that is not necessarily squarely under regime control, and because they are viewed as protectors--hence some of the cheering. But this might change under more tense circumstances. Commentators from Cairo are saying that it depends on the army`s next steps: if they appear to be there to put down the protests, then this will take a bad turn for the regime. Hence the regime calculus above regarding if and when to clamp down for real.

Mubarak is to address the situation soon!

[8:20 am, San Fransisco, 6:20 pm, Cairo]

The ruling National Democratic Party office is set on fire in Cairo, on the nile.

(note that one should be careful in taking all such events at face value. Historically, such acts were committed by the powers that be to justify subsequent action. This does not have to be an instance of this, but good to keep in mind, especially given some leaks yesterday regarding what the regime might do)

[9:15 am, San Fransisco, 7:15 pm, Cairo]

Thousands of protesters are in the process of raiding the official TV station in Cairo as well as the Foreign Ministry building. This process is spreading to other official institutions.

[9:30 am, San Francisco, 7:30 pm, Cairo]

President Mubarak imposes a national curfew. All reports point to the continuation of protests. Army deployments have been modest and, well, relatively not violent/brutal. There is a sense that while the protests will not stop, things will somehow go back to normal, or, the new normal where the regime can no longer stick to the status quo of yesterday, or of last week. But all this is speculative. Events on the ground will rule the day. But do not expect Mubarak to flee today. (at least because he fell ill, quite suddenly)

News of Mubarak`s speech were not sound. He is not speaking anytime soon. The regime learned from the Tunisian experience where Ben Ali came on too quickly and said too much, revealing a weakness that played out on the streets and in the demands of protesters. But the difference is not just tactical: the Egyptian regime is far better connected to segments of society than Tunisia`s.

The fact that many of us are starting to think and analyze the situation speaks to the slowing down of events of events on the streets in Egypt, at least in terms of numbers. But individual and group actions might turn things around ESPECIALLY if the policy/army respond violently to continuing protests/arson/etc.

What is under reported on most mainstream media is activity in the provinces outside Cairo. Watch for what might happen in Suez, for instance. Things are on fire there, but we don`t see them on TV as much. This also brings another important point to bear: all this is happening while the internet and other forms of communication are out! Imagine is this were not the case. Therefore, what is happening now--the resolve of the protesters--is remarkable and speaks to profound frustrations that are not likely to subside.

[9:50 am, San Francisco, 7:50 pm, Cairo]

The Egyptian authorities ordered the shutting down of mobile telephone networks according to various sources. If this is true, only face to face communication is left among protesters and organizers.

[10:25 am, San Francisco, 8:25 pm, Cairo]

Army artillery and tanks are getting thicker in Alexandria and Cairo as several buildings and nearby trees are ablaze. While some fires are being put out in sensitive buildings, some are looting the NDP headquarters. I heard from some sources that many protesters who went home an hour or two ago are returning to the streets for round 2.

This will be a long night. and the longer it is, the less reversible because news of the continuing protests is being spread by word of mouth in the absence of other forms of communication. This is causing the above return to the streets AND the joining of many new protesters, or those who simply want to be part of what is going on, including, the increasing looting that is likely to take place if this persists.

The city of Damanhoor has not yet fallen under the curfew, along with other provinces, which says a lot about the government`s capacity, trepidation, and hesitation. According to some observers, it is also a function of some units not following orders as quickly as others. hmm. This is a serious cause of concern for the regime, but good for the protesters--for now.

The death toll reached 5 at this point, but that must be confirmed at a later time. It actually might be a bit higher, not lower. But live fire is likely to play a bigger part during the rest of the night.

[11:30 am, San Francisco, 9:30 pm, Cairo]

The Alexandria Province official building is in flames, and so is the State Security building in Damanhoor. There is talk of three more deaths. All happening in the absence of any form of communication beyond that of face-to-face.

A new leadership seems to be emerging from the midst of the protest. We have yet to learn details about this but there seems to be an increasing level of organization around Maydan al-Tahreer and other areas were protesters are congregating.

There is also news of a list of demands that is being drafted in the background by various civil society leaders and activists. The interruption in the lines of communication is impeding such processes but, unfortunately for the regime, is incriminating it beyond repair and increasing the resolve of protesters and moving ordinary observers to join the uprising.

On the quite positive front, there are pro-active calls to emphasize the nationalist nature of this uprising and put down any signs of sectarianism. This has been evident by the chants and the written material that is being distributed here and there. Signs of Muslim-Christian camaraderie seem to dominate.

In other good news, protesters are forming a human shield around the most significant museum in Cairo, which speaks to the elevated consciousness of the protesters.

A wonderful point was made by an Egyptian analyst speaking at al-Jazeera: 3 official American agencies addressed the protests in Egypt. None said anything in Egypt. "These leaders are not worthy of these (Egyptian) people."

[1:00 pm, San Francisco, 11:00 pm, Cairo]

The death toll in Suez has reached 11, and the number of wounded nation-wide exceeded 1000.

International reactions are beginning to take note that this is not going to end. The US is officially talking about aid to Egypt (already), France is warning against Egypt travel (already), and lesser news.

[1:20 pm, San Francisco, 11:20 pm, Cairo]

Head of Parliament will shortly announce important developments that will probably change the course of events. It seems like it will be a serious announcement. Might we all be surprised, even shocked?

[Finale for Today/Tonight]

President Mubarak addressed the Egyptian people, announcing that the cabinet will be dissolved and a new cabinet will be formed to address the protesters` demands. Not good.

President Obama seems to be out of synch with President Mubarak. We do not know what is going on behind the corridors in either setting, and certainly do not know what is going on between the two "leaders."

Most significantly, the protesters are not buying it. It`s after 2 am in Egypt and the energy on the streets tells another story. We can only wait and see, and look forward to more unravelling in Egypt and elsewhere in the region.

This post will now give way to fresh analysis on other posts as events unfold.

تصبحون على وطن

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