From the Editors
The New York Times says Jadaliyya "Brings New Life to Arab Studies." Read about it by clicking here.
Based on numbers reported by Egyptian media outlets, below is a summary of the constitutional referendum vote results broken down by governorate.
What do these numbers tell us?
- In two stages of voting, average turnout across governorates was 30%, with Egyptians abroad participation being the most notable outlier with a 41% turnout rate.
- The only three governorates where the majority of voters elected to reject the draft constitution are Cairo, Gharbiyya, and Menofia.
What do these numbers not tell us?
- Given that the vast majority of eligible voters (68% or 33,855,564) did not participate in the referendum, we can neither conclude that the majority of the eligible voting population supports the constitution, nor can we conclude that a majority rejects it.
- Only 16,232,035 or 32% of eligible voters have reportedly cast a vote. It is, therefore, misleading to claim that the silence of the other 68% is reflective of support for one position or another.
What conclusions are impossible to draw from these numbers?
- The reasons behind the low turnout are many, not mutually exclusive, and unclear. Thus far, there has been no empirical evaluation of the possible links between voter abstention and lack of motivation, or the restriction that a voter can only vote in her assigned polling station—as opposed to the 19 March 2011 referendum, when Egyptians were allowed to vote wherever they pleased. It is unclear whether this restriction was enforced, and whether it was consistently respected.
- Attempting to establish relationships between governorate-level voting results and various demographic and social indicators, such as literacy rate, is misleading, because eligible voters in a given governorate may include individuals who reside in different governorates and whose demographics are not captured by governorate-level indicators. For instance, claiming that predominantly rural governorates support the constitution can be misleading if it turns out that registered voters in these supposedly rural regions include a large number of well-educated youth working in nearby urban centers.
- Commentators in social media have examined every possible correlation between [name your favorite social or demographic indicator] and governorate level voting outcomes. While drowning in interesting and seemingly revealing scatterplots and tables, it is easy to lose track of the fact that correlation is not causation. For example, given the data under consideration, the courageous inferences that commentators have been making with regards to the role of the rural/urban divide or illiteracy rates in driving voting behavior across governorates are anything but justified.
Constitutional Referendum Results Broken down by Governorate
Notes: AO: Ahram Online; EI: Egypt Independent; FJP: Freedom and Justice Party; MY: Al-Masry Al-Youm
If you prefer, email your comments to email@example.com.
Hot on Facebook
Jadalicious / جدلشس
"The United States has been a close ally of one of the most repressive Islamic states in the world—Saudi Arabia—and has had little difficulties with Turkey’s Islamic government. The “fear of Islamists” component of this narrative is clearly a red herring."click | email | tweet
Latest EntriesView All Entries »
- Saudi Arabia and the War of Legitimacy in Yemen
- Jadaliyya Co-Editor Mouin Rabbani Interviewed by Al-Jazeera English on UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura
- قراءة في شوق الدرويش: رواية تنتمي لنموذج ما بعد الاستعمار
- DARS Media Roundup (April 2015)
- On May Day, We Are in Taksim and We Are Everywhere!
- موت الله والحرب على الإرهاب
- تاريخ النشاط السياسي واقتصاده السياسي في المغرب: مقابلة للوضع بين زكية سليم وسامية الرزوقي
- Photography Media Roundup (April 30)
- حوار مع إدواردو غاليانو
- Bassam Haddad on Syria at Harvard: 'A Stateless Regime or State with Many Regimes?'
- New Texts Out Now: Adi Kuntsman and Rebecca L. Stein, Digital Militarism: Israel’s Occupation in the Social Media Age
- Highlights from the 4th Downtown Contemporary Arts Festival
- Arabian Peninsula Media Roundup (April 28)
- AAUP Findings on the Steven Salaita Case
- Cities Media Roundup (April 2015)
- ما زلنا نغني للثورة: مقابلة للوضع بين رامي عصام وبسام حداد
- Turkey Media Roundup (April 28)
- Experimenting and Exploring II: Student Photography from Cairo
- Egypt Media Roundup (April 27)
- Last Week on Jadaliyya (April 20-26)