From the Editors
Based on numbers reported by Egyptian media outlets, below is a summary of the constitutional referendum vote results broken down by governorate.
What do these numbers tell us?
- In two stages of voting, average turnout across governorates was 30%, with Egyptians abroad participation being the most notable outlier with a 41% turnout rate.
- The only three governorates where the majority of voters elected to reject the draft constitution are Cairo, Gharbiyya, and Menofia.
What do these numbers not tell us?
- Given that the vast majority of eligible voters (68% or 33,855,564) did not participate in the referendum, we can neither conclude that the majority of the eligible voting population supports the constitution, nor can we conclude that a majority rejects it.
- Only 16,232,035 or 32% of eligible voters have reportedly cast a vote. It is, therefore, misleading to claim that the silence of the other 68% is reflective of support for one position or another.
What conclusions are impossible to draw from these numbers?
- The reasons behind the low turnout are many, not mutually exclusive, and unclear. Thus far, there has been no empirical evaluation of the possible links between voter abstention and lack of motivation, or the restriction that a voter can only vote in her assigned polling station—as opposed to the 19 March 2011 referendum, when Egyptians were allowed to vote wherever they pleased. It is unclear whether this restriction was enforced, and whether it was consistently respected.
- Attempting to establish relationships between governorate-level voting results and various demographic and social indicators, such as literacy rate, is misleading, because eligible voters in a given governorate may include individuals who reside in different governorates and whose demographics are not captured by governorate-level indicators. For instance, claiming that predominantly rural governorates support the constitution can be misleading if it turns out that registered voters in these supposedly rural regions include a large number of well-educated youth working in nearby urban centers.
- Commentators in social media have examined every possible correlation between [name your favorite social or demographic indicator] and governorate level voting outcomes. While drowning in interesting and seemingly revealing scatterplots and tables, it is easy to lose track of the fact that correlation is not causation. For example, given the data under consideration, the courageous inferences that commentators have been making with regards to the role of the rural/urban divide or illiteracy rates in driving voting behavior across governorates are anything but justified.
Constitutional Referendum Results Broken down by Governorate
Notes: AO: Ahram Online; EI: Egypt Independent; FJP: Freedom and Justice Party; MY: Al-Masry Al-Youm
If you prefer, email your comments to email@example.com.
Hot on Facebook
Jadalicious / جدلشس
Hasn’t there been enough speaking about 9/11? Perhaps it’s time for a form of solidarity built around the act of listening.click | email | tweet
Latest EntriesView All Entries »
- تأملات في الجمالية والخطاب والتفاحة
- Syria Media Roundup (September 2)
- Arabian Peninsula Media Roundup (September 2)
- September Culture Bouquet
- Khaled Takreti: Modern Life
- Samih al-Qasim: I Will Engrave Our Names on the Wind
- Samih al-Qasim: The Last Train
- Samih al-Qasim: Two Poems
- ABOUNADDARA’s Take on Images in the Syrian Revolution: A Conversation between Charif Kiwan and Akram Zaatari (Part Two)
- من إنجيل العراق الضائع
- Revolutionary Street Art: Complicating the Discourse
- Khalil Sweileh: from Barbarians' Paradise
- Djerba, Tunisia: Garbage Disposal, the Environmental Crisis, and the Awakening of Ecoconsciousness
- Last Week on Jadaliyya (August 25-31)
- On SJP’s Freedom to Organize: An Open Letter from CUNY Faculty
- New Texts (NEWTON) Compilation by Category For Fall Semester
- One Century after World War I and the Balfour Declaration: Palestine and Palestine Studies
- Italian-Palestinian Relations: What Went Wrong?
- From Containment to Counterinsurgency in the Gaza Strip
- Sharing the Nile Waters According to Needs
Jad NavigationView Full Map, Topics, and Countries »
Syria Media Roundup (September 2) http://t.co/jMPWuZH49S
yesterday at 2:41 PM
عبدالله البياري: تأملات في الجمالية والخطاب والتفاحة http://t.co/Oitt0vH2qq
yesterday at 1:44 PM
Syria Media Roundup (Sept 2) http://t.co/92HuCL9NxR
yesterday at 1:00 PM
yesterday at 12:59 PM
Syria Media Roundup (Sept 2) http://t.co/l9zRqfSuHR
yesterday at 12:30 PM