[This post will be updated regularly as relevant events unfold.]

Tomorrow (Saturday) Egyptian voters will head to the polls to either accept or reject a set of constitutional amendments that could guide the direction and pace of Egypt’s transition. The amendments to the 1971 constitution were prepared by a panel of legal experts at the request of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, Egypt’s de facto ruler. If passed, they would (among other things) limit presidential terms and the use of emergency laws, and mandate judicial supervision of elections. While advocates of a swift transition that quickly transfers power from the army to an elected civilian government have hailed the proposed amendments, opponents demand a new constitution that would go much further in limiting the power of the executive. They say that the 1971 constitution lost its legitimacy with the onset of the revolution and the fall of the Hosni Mubarak order. Additionally, those who are poised to reject the constitutional amendments claim that convening elections under the proposed framework would grant traditional political forces, such as the Muslim Brotherhood and NDP remnants, undue influence to the marginalization of new political groups who were previously unable to organize under the previous regime. A brand new constitution and a broader timeframe for preparing for and convening elections, the argument goes, would offer a more even and inclusive political playing field. (For more on these debates, see Jadaliyya’s roundtable on legal and constitutional reform in Egypt.)

It takes a great deal of diligence to overlook the reality that this debate has evolved from one focused on the contents of the amendments and the old constitution to a one-dimensional debate on the intentions of the Muslim Brotherhood, the most prominent supporter of the constitutional amendments. While Brotherhood leaders, along with other Islamist leaning groups like Al-Wasat and Labor Parties, are standing in support of the amendments, other groups not associated with Islamist trends, including Al-Wafd, Al-Tagammu‘, and the Coalition of the January 25th Revolution Youth, call on supporters to reject them. Justifiably or not, this reality has convinced many Egyptians that a vote for the amendments is a vote for the Brotherhood and could be a first step in an ‘Islamist takeover’ in Egypt. On the other hand, Brotherhood supporters have invoked a narrative of victimization that labels their opponents (and opponents of the amendments) as collaborators with Western governments that want to see Egypt’s Islamists marginalized and weakened. In many ways, the recent turn in the debate on the constitutional referendum is challenging the spirit of national unity and cohesion that Tahrir Square helped promote among Egyptians during the revolution. 

Predictions? For the first time Egyptians are facing a truly unpredictable electoral outcome. Al-Masry Al-Youm and Al-Arabiyya recently conducted online polls on how Egyptians will vote in the constitutional referendum. These polls, however, (to state it mildly) betray basic social scientific standards and cannot be viewed as a serious reflection of the Egyptian electorate’s preferences. Since the Brotherhood is known to be one of the most organized political groups in Egypt and has outpaced its competitors within the opposition in past elections, some may interpret its support for the amendments as a sign that a majority will vote “yes” tomorrow. This view is misleading, because the Brotherhood’s impressive electoral gains in recent decades were primarily based on single-member electoral districts, and the large district size of tomorrow’s national poll may dilute the core pockets of support that the group enjoys throughout Egypt. Equally important, these past elections were characterized by low voting turnout rates, which is likely to change tomorrow. Many Egyptians who have never voted before (myself included) will probably head to the polls on Saturday—thanks to the Supreme Council of Armed Forces’ decision to eliminate registration requirements and allow people to vote with their national ID cards. Although Brotherhood supporters launched a campaign to encourage Egyptians to vote “yes,” opponents have engaged in a similar campaign to persuade eligible voters to reject the amendments. In fact, many young Egyptians have independently taken the initiative to produce and distribute pamphlets urging others to vote “no” in Saturday’s referendum.

UPDATES

March 18, 2011

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces yesterday announced a ban on media analysis and opinion pieces on the referendum until the close of voting polls tomorrow at 7:00 p.m. Egyptian Standard Time.

Locations of polling stations throughout Egypt are available through Al-Shorouk’s online news site.

Al-Masry Al-Youm: Muslim Brotherhood Supreme Guide, Mohammed Badie apologized for publishing a piece on the group’s official site accusing opponents of the constitutional amendments of receiving U.S. funding. The piece was removed from the website 90 minutes after it was posted.

Youm7: Three thousand Egyptians attended Friday prayer in Tahrir Square. Brotherhood leaders were not visible.

Al-Masry Al-Youm: Muslim Brotherhood leader Abdel Moneim Abul Futtuh and prominent Brotherhood member and journalist Mohammed Abdel Quddos are voting against the constitutional amendments.

Youm7: Hundreds of judges still do not know which polling stations they are scheduled to monitor tomorrow.

[Updates as of 9:08 p.m. Egyptian Standard Time]

Al-Shorouk: Thousands demonstrate against constitutional amendments in Cairo, Alexandria, Suez, Mansoura and Al-Minya.

Youm7: Military police arrests and interrogates activists in Tahrir Square for violating the ban on disseminating constitutional referendum-related propaganda. Activists, who were later released, were allegedly carrying thousands of pamphlets urging people to vote against the constitutional amendments.

Al-Wafd: Anti-constitutional amendment flyers visible in the streets of Alexandria.

Al-Masry Al-Youm: Muslim Brotherhood ranking member Abdel Moneim Abul Futtuh denies reports that he intends to vote against the constitutional amendments and encourages Egyptians to vote “yes” tomorrow. [Thanks, Amira Howeidy for flagging this story in the comments section]

Youm7: Qatar-based Egyptian preacher Yousef Qaradawi urges Egyptians to vote “yes” in tomorrow’s referendum.

Al-Wafd: Prominent judge Hisham Bastawisi announced intention to run for president and said he plans on voting against the constitutional amendments.

Al-Masry Al-Youm: Supreme Judicial Committee supervising the constitutional referendum granted 2260 permits for monitoring tomorrow’s vote. No permit requests were denied, according to the Committee. Information about locations of polling stations was made available here.

Al-Dostor (original): The time allotted for the referendum—10 hours—is insufficient for all eligible voters to vote, according to the National Association for Change.

Youm7: Votes in rural areas will determine the outcome of the referendum, says Abdel Ghaffar Shukr, General Coordinator of Coalition of the Left.

Al-Masry Al-Youm: National Association for Change, Campaign for Supporting ElBaradei, and Democratic Front Party announce the formation of the “National Coalition Toward Democracy,” which does not include representatives from the Muslim Brotherhood.

Youm7: After hundreds of supporters marched to his home urging him to run for president, former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq announced he is considering contesting the next presidential election.

March 19, 2011

[Updates as of 8:28 a.m. Egyptian Standard Time]

Youm7: Polling stations are open and voting has begun in all Egyptian governorates.

Al-Masry Al-Youm: Minister of Interior Mansour Al-Essawi says that NDP elements associated with the old order will not be able to ruin the referendum and encourages Egyptians to vote.

Al-Shorouk: Youth of the Revolution Party activists claim intimidation and attacks by affiliates of the Muslim Brotherhood and salafi groups while disseminating posters and flyers aimed at encouraging voters to reject the constitutional amendments.

Al-Wafd: Alexandria residents report finding at their doorsteps flyers containing the motto “Islam is the solution” and urging them to approve the constitutional amendments.

[Updates as of 11:30 a.m. Egyptian Standard Time]

I voted at Al-Tabari school in Cairo this morning. Line of voters outside the school was over two blocks long. Other than election ink all over my hands, I have not encountered any problems and observed no violations. Army officers were guarding the school’s entrance and exit, but remained outside the voting stations. A few police officers were present across the street from the school, but did not interact with the voters.

Media reports long lines at polling stations throughout Egypt, as well as the participation of prominent figures such as Prime Minister Essam Sharaf and presidential hopeful Amr Mousa.

Al-Masry Al-Youm: After voters at Heliopolis Military School complained that ballots did not have official stamps, judge monitoring the station ordered legal ballots. Voting at the site has resumed.

Youm7: NDP spokesperson Nabil Bebawi says that party officials all over Egypt have been instructed to encourage party members to vote in the referendum and approve the amendments.

Youm7: Writer and journalist Adel Hamouda predicts renewed protests in Tahrir Square if referendum outcome approves the proposed constitutional amendments.

[Updates as of 8:40 p.m. Egyptian Standard Time]

Masrawy: Voting stations close at 7:00 p.m. Egyptian Standard Time, but individuals who showed up before 7:00 p.m. allowed to cast their votes after the scheduled closing time.

Al-Masry Al-Youm: Voting at most polling stations exceeded 2,000 person mark, according to the Supreme Judicial Committee supervising the constitutional referendum.

Al-Wafd: Unprecedented turnout observed in North Sinai governorate.

Al-Wafd: Extra ballot boxes ordered in Kafr Al-Dawwar due to unusually high turnout.

Ikhwanolnine: Indications that 70% of Alexandrian voters accepted constitutional amendments.

Youm7: Reports that most voters in Al-Darb Al-Ahmar and Al-Khalifa areas voted to approve the constitutional amendments.

Al-Masry Al-Youm: Muslim Brotherhood Supreme Guide Mohammed Badie says he is ready to accept the referendum’s result whatever it is.

Al-Masry Al-Youm: Presidential hopeful Mohammed ElBaradei prevented from voting at Al-Shaymaa School in Al-Muqattam area by hundreds of individuals described by witnesses as “salafi” supporters who accused anti-amendments voters of blasphemy. Ikhwanonline claims that the army and Brotherhood supporters secured ElBaradei’s exit from the area.

Ikhwanweb: Muslim Brotherhood condemns attack on ElBaradei at voting site.

Masrawy: Reports of widespread use of pro-constitutional amendments posters by Muslim Brotherhood supporters.

Youm7:“Participate and Monitor” campaign reports violations at polling stations, including:

-Attempts by Muslim Brotherhood supporters to pressure voters to accept the constitutional amendments by distributing cooking oil bottles, sugar packets and books.

-Salafi groups putting up signs in front of voting sites calling on voters to vote “yes” in the referendum for the sake of “an Islamic state.”

-Assault against presidential hopeful Mohammed ElBaradei in front of the voting site.

Ikhwanweb: Reports of pressures on voters to vote “no” for constitutional amendments.

Youm7: Pro-constitutional amendments posters and attempts by “Islamists” to influence voters noted by National Council for Human Rights observer.

Youm7: Ballots missing official stamps reportedly found at Yousef Gadallah School in Al-Haram area.

Youm7: Muslim Brotherhood and April 6 movement supporters clash at an Imbaba voting station. Police forces separated the two groups.

Youm7: Aboud Al-Zumur voted “yes” for the constitutional amendments. Al-Zumur is one of the main defendants in the assassination of the late Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and was recently released from prison by Egyptian authorities.

Youm7: Rumors circulating in Sharm El-Sheikh that ousted President Hosni Mubarak voted in the constitutional referendum.

March 20, 2011

[Updates as of 10:50 a.m. Egyptian Standard Time]

Al-Ahram: Referendum results unlikely to be available today (Sunday) and results will be available in 2-3 days, according to the Supreme Judicial Committee supervising the constitutional referendum.

Al-Masry Al-Youm: Four NGOs file complaints with Supreme Judicial Committee supervising the constitutional referendum, citing a number of violations, including:

-Attempts by elements belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood, Salafi groups and the NDP to persuade people at voting sites to approve the constitutional amendments. These groups have allegedly transported groups of voters en masse to polling stations.

-Disruption of voting in multiple sites due to absence of judges or ballot shortages.

Masrawy: Human rights lawyer Ragiya Omran reportedly arrested yesterday at the voting site she was monitoring. Omran was held by authorities in Cairo and was not allowed to meet with lawyers before she was later released.

Youm7: Talk show host Amr Adib claims that Prime Minister Essam Sharaf voted “no” in the constitutional referendum.

El-Bashayer: Mubarak did not participate in the vote—the first time in 30 years.

Preliminary Results:

Masrawy: Preliminary estimates show that 79% of voters approved the constitutional amendments, according to Rasd News Network. Masrawy reports the following estimates (broken down by governorate):

-October: 70% yes – 30% no

-Alexandria: 70% yes, 20% no

-Ismailiyya: 80% yes – 20% no

-Giza: 70% yes – 30% no

-Daqahliyya: 80% yes – 20% no

-Suez: 75% yes – 25% no

-Sharqiyya: 85% yes – 15% no

-Gharbiyya: 79% yes – 21% no

-Fayyoum: 80% yes – 20% no

-Cairo: 70% yes – 20% no

-Qalubiyya: 70% yes – 30% no

-Port Said: 70% yes – 30% no

-Kafr Al-Sheikh: 70% yes – 30% no

-Monofiyya: 75% yes – 25% no

-Wadi El-Gedid: 75% yes- 25% no

-Aswan: 75% yes – 25% no

-Asyuit: 75% yes – 25% no

-Dimyat: 75% yes – 25% no

-North Sinai: 80% yes – 20% no

-South Sinai: 80% yes – 20% no

-Qena: 80% yes – 20% no

-Suhag: 78% yes – 22% no

Al-Ahram: Turnout rate exceeded 60%, says a member of the Supreme Judicial Committee supervising the constitutional referendum.

Al-Masry Al-Youm: 70% voted “yes” in three regions in Suhag governorate.

Al-Masry Al-Youm: Partial vote counts show 70% voted “yes” in Asyuit governorate and turnout rate estimated to be 80%. 70% voted “yes” for constitutional amendments in 2 out of 5 electoral districts in Suez governorate, according to judicial sources.

Al-Masry Al-Youm: Turnout rate estimated at 75% in Ismailiyya governorate and preliminary counts show that the majority voted for the constitutional amendments.

Al-Masry Al-Youm: About 80% of voters chose to support the constitutional amendments in 7 out of 20 regions in Daqahliyya governorate.

Al-Masry Al-Youm: 60% voted “yes” according to initial counts in Kafr Al-Sheikh governorate.

FINAL UPDATE (7:38 p.m. Egyptian Standard Time)

Constitutional amendments passed with the approval of 77% of voters and a 41% turnout rate (18 million voters), according to Supreme Judicial Committee supervising the constitutional referendum.