[The Middle East Studies Pedagogy Initiative (MESPI) brings you the twentieth in a series of “Peer-Reviewed Article Reviews” in which we present a collection of journals and their articles concerned with the Middle East and Arab world. This series will be published seasonally. Each issue will comprise three-to-four parts, depending on the number of articles included.]

Arab Media & Society (Issue 33)

Role of World Cup Soccer in Healing the Gulf Region: Zeal of Qatar’s Sport Diplomacy and Soft Power

By:  Nermeen Singer

Abstract: The study discusses the importance of the Qatar World Cup in 2022 and its implications for Gulf area relations in terms of sports diplomacy and soft power influence. This research employs a descriptive-analytic technique. Descriptive literature reviews synthesize individual studies and discuss the research procedures and findings of referenced studies. Numerous worldwide worries about the issue with the gulf nations’ embargo in regaining sovereignty and the Islamic and cultural values that are foreign to Western audiences will continue to put Qatar’s reputation management and branding tactics under pressure. Nonetheless, maintaining a role on international soccer grounds via partnerships, ownerships, and tournaments, as well as aggressively attempting to improve and ameliorate the nation’s international position, aided Doha in its sports policy objectives in the years leading up to and during the tournament. Its commitment to leaving a lasting legacy beyond December 2022 will also aid the state throughout the post-event era of empowerment. Finally, the article provides an overview of recent research on Qatar’s worldwide strategic plan for sport, whether for investing and diversifying state income or political and policy diplomatic purposes.

Following the 2022 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers on Facebook: A comparative study between Arab and Non-Arab Audiences

By:  Hossam Salama

Abstract: Over the past decade, sports teams and federations have prioritized providing content on important digital platforms to circulate relevant news and coverage, particularly on social networking sites. These sites have increasingly become reliable news sources that audiences can follow and then share this content among themselves. With the Middle East taking the global stage for the first time as the host of this event, it is useful to understand the similarities and differences between Arab and non-Arab audiences’ use of social media during the tournament’s qualifying stages. As such, this study compares Arab and non-Arab audiences’ use of Facebook as an information source for the 2022 World Cup qualifying matches. Results indicate that Facebook continues to enjoy a good relationship with its users who are motivated by amusement and entertainment (Ordinary) while seeking to obtain information and communicate with other individuals (Utilitarian). While these findings reflect and refine the five motivations posited by Haugh and Watkins (2016), this study also demonstrates that motives for new media require more depth and nuance than allowed for with the binary “Ordinary” and “Utilitarian” categorizations. This has implications for the Uses and Gratifications Theory as well as the methods used to study it.

The Integration of Politics and Sports in Lebanon

By: Ahmad Nasrallah, Jessica R. EL-Khoury

Abstract: In Lebanon, sports have been heavily linked to politics and religion. The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of politics on Lebanese sports in the two most prominent sports fields, football and basketball, using the Spiral of Silence and the Two-Step theories investigated through a mixed methods approach (survey: fan participants, and interviews: professional players). Results showed that politics and religion play a major role in sports, especially through funding, and fans are affected by this former integration.  Results also indicated mostly negative attitudes towards this interference, and many have noted being affected by opinions related to teams and decisions that circulate on social media. The results pave the way to understanding how the sports-religion system intertwines in Lebanon, provides an assessment of fans’ and players’ behavior, and emphasizes the need for financial support for the teams’ and fans’ sustainability, as a recommendation to reduce this interference in a healthy manner.

The Role of Social Media in Developing Interests in Sports Among Arab Women 

By:  Amr Assad

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of social media in developing Arab women’s interest in sports. A survey questionnaire based on the uses and gratification theory was distributed to 411 Arab women from different age groups, education levels, and employment statuses. In analyzing the results to explore the participants’ motivation in their use of social media for sports, the study indicates that entertainment and information-seeking were the main motivations for women consuming sports on social media. The overall findings also suggest that social media plays a pivotal role in driving Arab females’ interests in sports.

Arab Studies Journal (Volume 30, Issue 1)

“Are We the Last Byzantium?”: The Evolution of Antoine Najim’s Thought and the Radicalization of Christian Conservatism in Wartime Lebanon (1952–1982)

By:  Chloe Kattar

Abstract: Not available

Outsourcing Violence: Para-Institutional Coercive Actors in the United Arab Emirates’ Regional Activism

By:  Noureddine Jebnoun

Abstract: Not available

Arab Studies Quarterly (Volume 44, Issue 2)

Gothic Politics in Ahmed Saadawi’s Frankenstein In Baghdad (2013)

By: Marwa Essam Eldin Fahmy Alkhayat

Abstract: The present article examines a narrative of darkness to illuminate the rhetoric of haunting and monstrosity. Gothicity evokes a sense of indeterminateness and it dramatizes disruptive incorporeal occurrences as interrogated in Ahmed Saadawi’s Frankenstein in Baghdad, a war Frankenfiction. It stages horror to chronicle national disintegration through the rise of a sewn-together zombie to mark the appalling arrival of the Iraqi dissenter. The new twenty-first-century monster is a zombie to defy marginality and to associate monstrosity with deviance and abnormality. Within this rationale, the present study investigates the aesthetics of Postcolonial Gothic politics to examine the use of the supernatural, the grotesque body, the monstrous abject, and the haunted ruins to depict a dismembered nation through the deployment of eerie motifs and surreal techniques. My premise fleshes out the Frankenstein hubris to dismantle the US political culture in Iraq. The aim is to reframe the modern Gothic monster as an emblem of reverse colonialism to defy the imperialist ideologies and to articulate past trauma through the rhetoric of bodily horror, haunting and ghostly fear.

How Can Social Cohesion Foster State-Building And Confront Tribalism? A Comparative Analysis Of The Post-Arab Uprisings Period In Tunisia And Libya

By:  Ferial Menaifi

Abstract: The Middle East and North Africa have experienced mass protests and political changes since the end of 2010. Indeed, the uprisings were a decisive turning point in the history of the Arab world. Although the leading causes of the revolts appear to be similar, as they result from political repression and socioeconomic grievances, their outcomes were highly different, and thus each state has developed a distinct state-building process. This article aims to explain one of the main factors that led to these divergences by comparing the role of “social cohesion” in Tunisia’s and Libya’s uprisings. The study concludes that, while the strength of social cohesion in Tunisia has fostered the role of civil society and thus explains to a certain degree the relative success of democratic transition in the country, the weakness of social cohesion in Libya has damaged the social fabric and therefore increased the emergence of tribal conflicts in the post-transition era.

Setting Narrative Through Instagram Posts: A Study Of BBC’s Reportage On Afghanistan

By: K. Anjali Sharma, Suparna Naresh

Abstract: Media organizations have an immense role to play in disseminating information and shaping perspectives across borders. Though the information revolution provides us with many new opportunities, it also helps in establishing a single narrative through the cultural cultivation of popular media over time. Orientalism, in this manner, presents an image that the West created of the Near East centuries ago and these secondhand experiences are enhanced over the years by the powerful states and media organizations to maintain the established hegemony. This current study focuses on understanding the British Broadcasting Corporation’s narrative and its ability to include and exclude certain historical facts while reporting on the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan through Instagram posts. The study found BBC portraying a favorable image for the role played by the NATO allies in Afghanistan and described the Taliban as a sheer group of terror, barbaric, and inhumane organization, following extreme Sharia laws.

British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies (Volume 49, Issue 2)

Stagnation Vs adaptation: tracking the Muslim Brotherhood's trajectories after the 2013 coup

By:  Lucia Ardovini

Abstract: This article traces the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood’s trajectories in the aftermath of 2013 up to 2018, focusing on the main challenges that the movement faces when trying to react to its perceived failure and ongoing repression. Following the coup, the Brotherhood entered a state of stagnation that is currently struggling to break out from. With most of its historical leadership either abroad or in jail, the Brotherhood is splintering into different factions and therefore lacks a coherent strategy vìs-a-vìs the regime and a cohesive sense of identity. Similarly, the organization’s removal from Egypt’s socio-political life—coupled with the unprecedented intensity of state repression- mean that the Brotherhood needs to develop new ways to survive illegality and stagnation. This article argues that, under such unfamiliar circumstances, the movement is growing increasingly divided by tensions between stagnation and adaptation strategies. This is manifested in the disconnect between the Brotherhood organization’s response to repression and that of its members. Drawing from ethnographic fieldwork conducted in Turkey and the UK between 2013 and 2018, with both current and former members, the paper shows that the Brotherhood’s fragmentation is driven by tensions between historical stances and desires to adapt to its current situation.

On Palestinian Yiddish and Ashkenazi Arabic in 18-19 century Palestine: a language-oriented new look on Jewish-Arab relations

By:  Yonatan Mendel

Abstract: This article aims to shed light on two principle subjects relating to language and culture in the Jewish community in Palestine before the rise of Zionism. First, it attempts to describe and to deepen our understanding of the Yiddish of the Ashkenazi community spoken in Historical Palestine in the 18th and 19th centuries. This dialect of Yiddish, referred to in this article as ‘Palestinian Yiddish’, was permeated with Arabic influences. Secondly, and in conjunction with addressing this dialect, the article explores various facets of the knowledge of Arabic among the Ashkenazi community in the country. In this respect, it highlights that the increased knowledge of Arabic in the Ashkenazi community indicates not only acquaintance with the language itself, but also encompasses broader insights about the relations between the Ashkenazi community and the Arab-Palestinian people which challenges the traditional research on the topic. Based on socio-linguistic analysis, as well as inslights from language contact and language and society, this article claims that the language parameter can highlight the social and political routes in which the Ashkenazi Palestinian community was paving, including those of acclimation, integration and being part of the general hegemonic Arab culture. As I argue, this is not unconnected to Zionism’s strenuous recoil from both of these languages—Yiddish and Arabic. ‘Palestinian Yiddish’ and ‘Ashkenazi Arabic’, therefore, jointly reveal a period as it once was and is no more: language skills and social relations that posed a threat to separatist practices that were to be pushed forward by the Zionist movement.

The Myth of Turkish Islam: the influence of Naqshbandi-Gümüşhanevi thought in Turkish Islamic orthodoxy

By:  Omer F. Erturk

Abstract: Turkish Islam has been defined as unique and exceptional, and it is suggested that it is an antidote to radical Islamic ideologies due to its adherence to the supposedly moderate and rational Hanafi-Maturidi theology, which is considered to have an inclusive and tolerant Sufi character. Turkish Islam is mostly defined by its Gümüşhanevi lineage, the most successful, though not theologically heterogeneous, of all active Naqshbandi communities in Turkey. Sharing a belief in its non-revolutionary character, some have asserted that it is open to democratic values. This study delves into the concept of ‘Turkish Islam’ in the belief that there is a lack of in-depth textual and methodological analysis to assess these claims. Based on a text-based analysis of primary sources, particularly the works of Ahmed Ziyaeddin Gümüşhanevi and Mehmed Zahid Kotku, two leading masters of the Naqshbandi-Gümüşhanevi discipline, this study uncovers the foundational religious motivation and codes behind Turkish Islam. As a research methodology, content analysis with purposive sampling was conducted, focusing on six of the most defining issues of Islam, al-wala’ wal-bara’, apostasy, jihad, the Islamic state, women, and art and philosophy. The study concludes that Turkish Islam is not unique or even exceptional either at the theological and discursive levels, nor does it necessarily demonstrate a willingness to embrace the values attributed to it.

‘Revenge of the jobniks’? Soldier representation and resistance in contemporary Israeli popular culture

By: Daphne Inbar, Oren Barak

Abstract: For many decades, cultural representations of the military and military service in Israel, particularly in films and television series, tended to focus on male Sabra (Israeli-born) soldiers and their combat experiences, portraying them from either a ‘heroic-nationalist’ or a ‘post-heroic’ perspective. However, several recent Israeli films and television series bring to the fore men and women from different social backgrounds who serve as non-combatant soldiers (jobniks) far behind the frontlines. Such depictions of ‘anti-heroic’ soldiers expose previously underrepresented aspects of service in the Israeli military, ranging from subtle expressions of a lack of motivation to open acts of resistance. Based on an analysis of several notable films and television series featuring jobnik protagonists, we argue that although these works give voice to previously underrepresented social groups and accord legitimacy to soldiers’ acts of resistance, they simultaneously foster a more conservative discourse regarding military service in Israel by excluding other social groups and setting limits on individuals’ conduct within and outside the military. These findings suggest that while popular culture can challenge militarist tendencies, it may ultimately reinforce the military’s position as the ‘people’s army’ and the social norm of mandatory conscription.

The Arab Rationalist Association and the turn to Nahḍah in contemporary Arab thought

By:  Ahmad Agbaria

Abstract: The spike in the number of Arabic writings on the nahḍah since the beginning of the 1990 s represents a new and intriguing development in contemporary Arab thought. This relatively recent nahḍah-frenzy is best reflected in the new editions, collections and re-publications of nahdawi writers whose articles and essays remained, until recently, scattered and dispersed. Why did the 1990 s mark a time where the need to repackage of Nahda literature became urgent? This article argues that only through contextualizing the question of nahḍah within the growing Arab debate on turath, this question finds its resolution. Offering to dissect the debate on turath, explicating the motives that stood behind its propounders, and the cultural sensibilities its gave rise to, affords a vantage point through which to explain the obsession with nahḍah in the post-colonial Arab world.

Political time and leadership in the Middle East: an analysis of 22 prominent leaders

By:  Guy Burton

Abstract: Who are the most notable and successful political leaders in the Middle East? Employing the concept of political time and through a survey of textbooks and popular history books relating to the region, 22 prominent individuals are identified in the modern period (i.e. since 1800). All were male and half of them came from the regional core (i.e. Egypt and the Mashreq countries). The leaders mainly came from the establishment and the armed forces. They mostly exercised power during the second half of the twentieth century. Many of them governed for long periods of time. Half of them were forcibly removed from office. The reasons for their removal were for political rather than economic reasons; there was little difference in economic performance between leaders who were forcibly removed and those who were not. However, one distinction between the two types of leaders was over their level of public spending. Those who kept government spending over 20% of GDP were less at risk. Ultimately, what made a political leader successful involved the following: an ability to act independently; avoiding forcible removal from office; and his political regime surviving his departure.

Alevism as Islam: rethinking Shahab Ahmed’s conceptualization of Islam through Alevi poetry

By:  Zeynep Oktay-Uslu

Abstract: Shahab Ahmed’s What is Islam?: The Importance of Being Islamic, published in 2016, has significantly impacted discussions on the definition of Islam. This article focuses on Ahmed’s reconceptualization of Islam as ‘hermeneutical engagement with Pre-Text, Text, and Con-Text of Revelation to Muḥammad’. As an Islamic tradition which greatly contradicts various normative Islamic traditions, Alevism is a valuable locus for testing Ahmed’s reconceptualization of Islam. In the first part of this article, I aim to show how Alevis formulated their relation to Islam in their poetry and other classical texts, in order to address whether we can situate Alevism within the sphere of Islam as defined by Shahab Ahmed. In the second part, I compare Ahmed’s conceptualization of Islam to those of Alevis. For both parts, I use as my source the historical and literary documents of Alevism, such as buyruḳs, mathnawīs, dīvāns, and poems in poetry collections. I argue that including cases like Alevism to Islam’s landscape of contradictions (limited to Sunni Islam in Ahmed’s work) not only deconstructs our (in this case, Ahmed’s) existing conceptualizations of Islam, but also serves to reconceptualize Islam.

Social capital and sense of neighbourhood belonging among Qatari nationals

By: Abdoulaye Diop, Mohammad Hassan Al Ansari, Semsia Al Ali Mustafa, Le Kien

Abstract: This study examines citizens’ sense of neighbourhood belonging in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, focusing on the State of Qatar. While much research about this issue has been conducted in developed countries, little is known about how citizens’ ‘stock’ of social capital, religiosity and civic engagement affect their sense of belonging to their neighbourhood within GCC countries. In the present study, we address this question by analysing data from two waves of nationally representative surveys undertaken in Qatar, drilling down into the various dimensions of social capital and their effect on community attachment at the neighbourhood level. The results indicate that, even after controlling for a wide range of demographic variables, social capital has a strong effect on the nationals’ sense of belonging to their communities. The results have implications for researchers with respect to the salience of social capital as a concept and for policymakers concerned with building an integrated and diverse community that is inclusive of people from various backgrounds.

Sectarianism in the service of Salafism: Shiites as a political tool for Jordanian Salafis

By:  Joas Wagemakers

Abstract: Jordanian Salafis are often anti-Shiite and employ the religious and conspiratorial arguments against Shiism found among Salafis elsewhere. Yet the specific arguments they use show that they are not merely the Jordanian exponents of a global anti-Shiite Salafi trend, but also have reasons of their own to exploit sectarianism. These reasons have to do with the near absence of Shiite communities in Jordan (meaning that anti-Shiite sentiments will not lead to civil strife in Jordanian society itself), the regime’s ecumenical attitude towards Twelver and Fiver Shiites and its highly critical views of ‘political Shiism’ and ‘Shiitizers’. At the same time, the position of Salafis in Jordan, whose beliefs are viewed with scepticism by a regime that supports ‘moderate’ Islam, also plays a role. Quietist Salafis, who shun political activism, are keen to show the regime their non-violent, obedient and loyalist credentials as allies in the fight against radical Islamism. Political Salafis, who do engage in political activism, also want to show that there is nothing to fear from them and that they can be trusted. Both groups have used Shiism to make these points, showing that Salafi anti-Shiism is not just a global phenomenon, but is also locally shaped.

Departing ‘Secularism’: boundary appropriation and extension of the Syrian state in the religious domain since 2011

By:  Rahaf Aldoughli

Abstract: Despite the official secularity of the Syrian state, religion has always been a viable instrument used by the Baˈathist regime to consolidate its authority and legitimacy. Taking different historical trajectories ranging from confrontation to co-optation, the boundaries between state and religion have shifted to conflation in the post-2011 uprising. The official political rhetoric has become explicitly religious and anti-secular, ending an era of official secularity since the 1970s. This newly employed religious rhetoric is evident in the presidential discourse, which is heavily and explicitly infused with religious language. Analysis of Bashar al-Assad’s speech to high-ranking ulama in 2011 and his other public statements on the website of the Ministry of Awqaf provides evidence not only of how such religious language marks the move from secularity, which was used to strategically co-opt religious institutions up to 2010, but also how the deployment of religion has become a source of security, legitimacy and survival for the Baˈathist regime since 2011.

Critical Studies on Terrorism (Volume 15, Issue 2)

Tweeting terrorism: Vernacular conceptions of Muslims and terror in the wake of the Manchester Bombing on Twitter

By: Joseph Downing, Sarah Gerwens, Richard Dron

Abstract: Both vernacular security studies and critical terrorism studies (CTS) offer constructivist analyses of security couched in understandings of security speak. However, neither adequately take account of the ways in which social media presents important opportunities for greater insight into how terrorism is constructed. This study analyses tweets posted after the 2017 Manchester bombing, exploring how jihadist terror attacks are constructed on social media. To do this, we combine social network analysis, as a sampling method, with discourse analysis. The study finds that Twitter provides a platform for diverse terrorism discourses to be expressed and contested. This indicates a literate lay audience within post-attack narratives, self-aware of dominant social constructions of “Muslim terrorism”. Indeed, it suggests an audience that, on Twitter, is hardly only audience but seeks to speak security itself. Insights are gleaned with respect to depicting, defending, and critiquing Muslims, constructing what it means to be a terrorist, portrayals of victimhood, and how terror events feed into broader critiques of “political correctness” and “liberal” politics. Therefore, the analysis also provides further insights into the portrayal and (self-)positioning of Muslims in the wake of a jihadist attack and nuances accounts of Muslims’ securitisation qua terror.

‘Fulanis are foreign terrorists’: the social construction of a suspect community in the Sahel

By: Promise Frank Ejiofor

Abstract: Whilst the triggers of the peasant-pastoralist conflicts in the Sahel region have been explained through factors such as climate change, environmental scarcity, population pressures, urbanisation, political ecology, and the failure of traditional negotiation mechanisms, less scholarly attention has been given to the narratives that draw on history to categorise the Fulani as a potentially dangerous ethnoreligious group and how such narratives make peaceful coexistence nearly impossible. This article draws on the theoretical framework of “suspect community” originally coined by Paddy Hillyard to demonstrate how the social construction of the Fulani ethnic group by the media and political actors in Nigeria as foreigners, uncivilised savages, terrorists, rapists, and armed bandits with a hidden agenda to Islamise non-Christian Nigerians has led to the failure of well-intentioned policy initiatives to minimise conflicts between peasants and pastoralists. The article contends that such narratives do not dissolve longstanding peasant-pastoralist confrontations but instead alienate and marginalise the Fulani through punitive security measures thereby preventing the possibility of peaceful politics. The article thus argues that peaceful coexistence requires the rejection of demonising discourses which, in turn, will mean the mutual acceptance of policies aimed at stemming the skirmishes between peasants and pastoralists.

The inclusion of women in jihad: gendered practices of legitimation in Islamic State recruitment propaganda

By: Agnes Termeer, Isabelle Duyvesteyn

Abstract: Although jihadist terrorist organisations envisage a society divided according to strict gender roles, they have increasingly turned to women in pursuit of their goals. This is a double-edged sword for jihadist groups: while recruitment of women increases the pool of activists, the discrepancy between their patriarchal beliefs and women’s enlistment may have implications for their legitimacy. How jihadists address this dilemma in their appeals to women, however, has received little attention to date. Integrating literature on recruitment and legitimacy, this article looks at the case of ISIS from a gender lens to explore how the group reconciled its recruitment of women with its patriarchal ideology. A critical discourse analysis of the group’s publications between 2015 and 2017 reveals three gendered narratives that ISIS has used to substantiate its recruitment of women. These narratives depict women as builders of the Ummah, representatives of Islam, and guardians of the Caliphate. In all constructs, it is argued, women are assigned agency, with their violent agency specifically developing over time. The legitimation attempts of ISIS provide insight into the growing appeal to enlist women by patriarchal terrorist organisations, their ability to rationalise this, and the potentially refutable claims to counter this trend.

Kurdish “patriotic” families: an incentive or an impediment to joining the PKK through the generations and according to gender

By: Barış Tuğrul, Caroline Guibet Lafaye

Abstract: Participation in national liberation struggles is often considered to be a “family tradition”. The academic literature has taken up the idea that every Kurdish family should “give a child” to the guerrilla movement. These assertions have rarely been based on qualitative data. To examine the role of family traditions on the militant trajectories of the Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan (PKK), we met 64 of its guerrilla fighters from three consecutive generations, encompassing a broad militancy period from the mid-1980s until today. This article highlights the variable impact of primary socialisation processes, in particular, the patriotic family, according to the generations and gender, suggesting that retrospective narratives made by PKK militants themselves reflect reluctance among their family members towards their engagement in the clandestine struggle.

Defence and Peace Economics (Volume 33, Issues 2 & 3)

The Economic Cost of the Islamic Revolution and War for Iran: Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence

By: Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

Abstract: This study estimates the joint effect of a new political regime and war against Iraq, on Iran’s per capita Gross Domestic Product (‘GDP,’ constant 2010 US$) for the period 1978–1988, during the revolution/war. I use a synthetic control approach, whereby a synthetic Iran is constructed as a weighted average of other Middle East and North Africa (‘MENA’)/Organization of the Petroleum Exporting (‘OPEC’) countries to match the average level of some key per capita GDP correlates over the period 1970–1977 as well as the evolution of the actual Iranian per capita GDP during that period. I find a sizable negative effect of the joint treatment. The average Iranian lost an accumulated sum of approximately US$ 34,660 during 1978–1988 (i.e. the average annual real per capita income loss of US$ 3,150). This loss equals 40% of the real income per capita, which an Iranian could earn in the absence of revolution and war. The confidence sets based on constant, linear, and uniform assumptions of treatment effect show that estimated income loss for Iran is sizeable and statistically significant. The results remain robust to a set of placebo tests.

Odds for Arms? State Chance Game Participation in Turkey

By: Gulay Gunluk-Senesen, Mustafa Kahveci

Abstract: Net profits of state-run chance games are either earmarked for non-defence ‘good causes’ or added to the public purse in international practice. The Turkish case is unique as 95% of profits were earmarked for the extrabudgetary Defence Industry Support Fund (DISF) by legislation during 1986–2007. The DISF administers security equipment procurement and domestic arms production in Turkey. The earmarking practice was dissolved in 2007 and chance game profits are transferred to the general budget. The incomings of the DISF are from the budget and from earmarked taxes from 2007 onwards. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of these practices on chance game sales for the period 1986–2017. Noting that a chance game is a joint public-private good, participation is motivated by expectations for private gain but at the same time loss is legitimised by expectations for provision of public services with the takeout part. In order to gain insight into the societal motives in chance game participation in Turkey our model is defined in the context of private (consumerism) cum public (security, warfare) interest. The VECM estimates support a long-run relationship between chance game sales and security variables.

Empirical Investigation into the Determinants of Foreign Aid in Sahel Countries: A Panel Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

By: Nimonka Bayale

Abstract: This paper introduces model uncertainty into the empirical study on the determinants of foreign aid at the regional level. This is done by adopting a panel Bayesian model averaging approach applied on the data of 10 Sahel countries spanning from 1985 to 2017. Our results suggest that, among the regressors considered, those reflecting trade stakes including arm imports, institutional conditions and socioeconomic prospects tend to receive high posterior inclusion probabilities. These findings are robust to changes in the model specification and sample composition and are not meaningfully affected by the linear panel data model applied. The results highlight three concerns that justify aid flows towards Sahel countries: (i) interest of donors (self-interest), (ii) recipient economic needs and (iii) security purposes. The paper recommends Sahel countries to strengthen international cooperation for security and peace in compliance with the 13th goal of the Agenda 2063 of the African Union.

Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict (Volume 15, Issue 2)

Hunting for Gray Rhinos and terrorism in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia

By: Lawrence A. Kuznara, Jeffrey Day

Abstract: Statistical modelling of terrorism has advanced the understanding of its underlying drivers. However, numerous questions remain, some have not been empirically tested, and regional dynamics differ. In recent decades, the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) and Central Asia have been focal points of terrorism. An extensive review of global and regional statistical models of terrorism at the country-year level was conducted and hypotheses re-tested on a database for MENA and Central Asia for years 1998–2017. The analysis indicates that the primary drivers of terrorism in this region are corruption, war, state terror, weak democracy, and unemployment. Fuel exports, ethnic and religious fractionalization, youth bulges, and internally displaced persons (IDPs) have little or no statistically significant relationship to terrorism in the region. Collectively, these results indicate that certain factors can anticipate terrorism in the region. Further analysis indicates that some factors have the potential to erupt suddenly and therefore require constant monitoring and sound contingency planning.

International Journal of Middle East Studies (Volume 54, Issue 2)

Musical Intimacy, Model Citizenship, and Sufism in the Life of Niyazi Sayin

By: Banu Senay, Christopher Houston

Abstract: Niyazi Sayın is an Istanbul-born ney (reed flute) virtuoso, and the most acclaimed musician of a musical tradition controversially called “Ottoman-Turkish classical music.” Now 94 years old, Sayın has been called insan-i kamil (a perfect human), kutb-ı nayi, (the musical spiritual axis of his age), and hezarfen (master of a thousand arts). What do such titles mean? Building upon the work of Martin Stokes on popular music and its fashioning of intimate publics, this paper explores Sayın's musical life. We argue that it provides an exemplary expression of cultural intimacy for listeners and students, one that (as reflected in his titles) demonstrates a particular way of becoming a person, a Muslim, and a model citizen. In contrast with more official constructions of citizenship, as well as with the political neo-Ottomanism of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Sayın's life and music open up alternative possibilities of self-alteration for those who engage with it.

Uneasy Neighbors: The Making of Sectarian Difference and Alevi Precarity in Urban Turkey

By: Banu Gökarıksel, Anna J. Secor

Abstract: This study takes a critical perspective on the making of sectarian difference and Alevi precarity in contemporary Turkey. Drawing on our research from 2013 to 2016, we present an analysis of stories and conversations that took place amongst Alevi and Sunni focus group participants, primarily in Istanbul. These conversations illustrate how sectarian difference can be made in the relations between neighbors as differences become coded as sectarian and taken up within systems of power and domination. At the same time, our research also shows how, in the entangled relations between neighbors, questions of ethics and mutual responsibility arise, though these relations sometimes become uneasy or even unbearable. Finally, we show how the question of “knowing” difference is taken up within a power-laden discourse of sectarianism, one that is tied to the history of Alevis (and others) in Turkey while also extending well beyond this context.

Not All Who Ascend Remain: Afro-Asian Jewish Returnees from Israel

By:  Bryan K. Roby

Abstract: In the wake of Israeli Black Panther activism in the mid-1970s, the Arab League invited Mizrahi (Afro-Asian) Jews, especially those in Israel, to return to their homeland. Some Israelis used the invitation as an opportunity to highlight the extent of anti-Mizrahi discrimination by departing for the Arab world. Albeit small in number in comparison to those who left Israel for other destinations, those who repatriated made a huge impact on perceptions of Israeli emigres. Their importance rested not in their numbers but in the significant threat posed to the Israeli establishment. Afro-Asian Jewish repatriation sent a message that the Zionist project, particularly as the opposing nationalist movement to Pan-Arabism, was a failure.

Between Church and State: The Challenges of Reforming the Church Courts and Family Law in the Greek Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem

By:  Dörthe Engelcke

Abstract: In most Middle Eastern jurisdictions, the applicable family law is determined based on the religious affiliation of the parties involved. Whereas Jordanian Islamic family law has last been reformed in 2001, 2010, and 2019, and the law that regulates the shariʿa courts has been amended several times since 1972, the family laws of Christian communities and the church courts have largely been exempted from this reform dynamic. Based on semi-structured interviews as well as the review of written sources, this article investigates why it is difficult to reform the church courts and even more difficult to reform the family laws of Christian communities, using the Greek Orthodox community in Jordan as a case study. I argue that conflicts within the Greek Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem and the fact that the jurisdiction of the patriarchate over family law transcends Jordanian state boundaries have made state-led reform challenging and presented obstacles for Jordanian Christians lobbying for change.

In Pursuit of Laicized Urban Administration: The Muhtar System in Istanbul and Ottoman Attitudes toward Non-Muslim Religious Authorities in the Nineteenth Century

By:  Masayuki Ueno

Abstract: The Ottoman Empire introduced the muhtar system in Istanbul in 1829, appointing lay headmen, called muhtar, to the lowest levels of urban administration: Muslim neighborhoods; Orthodox, Armenian, and Catholic parishes; and Jewish congregations. This reform resulted in the overlapping of state responsibilities and those of non-Muslim religious authorities, later leading to disputes between the groups. This article investigates such disagreements in an effort to understand how state officials perceived non-Muslim religious authorities’ participation in imperial governance. In so doing, this article argues that, as non-Muslim political movements began developing during the late nineteenth century, state officials adopted a cautious attitude toward non-Muslim clergy, viewing the latter as requiring more careful handling than the layman. This take on clergymen was a shift, a reconsideration of the exceptional treatment they had previously enjoyed, and ignited a growing desire to sever the ties, formerly tolerated, between muhtars and religious authorities.

Confessionalism, Centralism, Armenians, and Ottoman Imperial Governance in the 18th and 19th Centuries

By:  Richard Antaramian

Abstract: This article argues that non-Muslim engagement with 19th-century Ottoman reform should be understood in the context of a confessionalized politics that originally fostered partnerships of governance in the 18th century. The confessionalization of non-Muslim communities in the 18th century, which resulted in the political empowerment of Istanbul-based ethnarchs, promoted the establishment of robust communal boundaries that were more legible to the central state. These arrangements also made non-Muslim communities such as the Armenians partners in governance, responsible for supporting the state's effort to maintain its place atop a contentious imperial politics. The Tanzimat reforms, which reorganized non-Muslim communities and devolved some power from the clergy to the laity, were not a novelty, but instead a renegotiation of non-Muslims’ roles in the centralization of state. Rather than embrace secularized identities, non-Muslims enthusiastically used their own religious institutions to promote state centralization. In the process, they reconfigured relations of power in the region that left non-Muslims structurally marginalized.

Journal of Middle East Women's Studies (Volume 18, Issue 1)

Gendered Struggles over the Medical Profession in the Modern Middle East and North Africa

By: Liat Kozma, Nicole Khayat

Abstract: Historians of the professionalization of medicine in colonized regions, including the Middle East, have mostly focused on male practitioners, whereas histories of women in the medical professions are mostly centered in Western societies. The present issue examines histories of female medical practitioners by looking at case studies spanning the twentieth century from Algeria, Palestine, Israel, Iran, and Iraq. The introduction to this issue offers an overview of existing scholarship and charts sources and directions for future research and historical actors yet to be studied. The articles examine microlevel contact zones, in which women’s agency shaped and was shaped by colonial and postcolonial encounters, decolonization, and the formation of national professions. They reveal tensions within the medical sphere, between men and women, foreign and local, colonizer and colonized.

The Female Imperial Agent and the Intricacies of Power

By: Hagit Krik

Abstract: British women have hitherto been almost absent from the history of British colonialism in the Middle East, and particularly in Mandate Palestine (1918–48). By using an individual tale of a British nurse as a vantage point, the article explores the personal and professional experiences of British nurses in Mandate Palestine and scrutinizes their contested status. As women, as British, as medical practitioners, and specifically as nurses, British nurses present a singular type of local-level imperial agent who confronted multiple challenges to their identities. Empowered as imperial agents of health, biomedicine, and hygiene, they had exercised professional, cultural, and racial authority over indigenous people. At the same time, their gender, vocation, and marital status have limited their scope of influence within a male-dominated medical hierarchy, as well as locate them at the lower strata of British colonial society. Nurses’ tales thus offer a unique perspective for investigating colonial power relations and the intersections of medicine, gender, race, and class.

Nursing (Inter)nationalism in Iran, 1916–1947

By: Lydia Wytenbroek

Abstract: In the first half of the twentieth century, American missionary nurses, working under the auspices of the Presbyterian Mission to Iran, established areas of educational innovation within mission medicine and Iranian health care. Drawing on Presbyterian mission records, this article considers missionary nurses’ efforts to cultivate international nursing standards in Iran between 1916, when they opened their first nursing school, and 1947, when they launched an institute of higher education for nurses. From the outset their mission was to develop the nursing profession and “produce fine nurses for Iran.” In effect, they proselytized for the nursing profession. For twenty years they operated the only nursing schools in the country. This article argues that missionary nurses’ commitment to nursing professionalism facilitated Iranian nursing nationalism. It also reveals that some Iranian women took advantage of mission nursing schools to advance their education and cultivate prominent nursing careers.

Women Doctors and the Medical Profession in Iraq during the First Half of the Twentieth Century

By: Sara Farhan

Abstract: This article explores the history of Iraqi women’s participation in the medical profession as accredited physicians in the first half of the twentieth century. It begins with a discussion of women’s exclusion from late Ottoman medical education faculties and their reliance on lay practice as a form of medical training. Women’s ascension in the medical profession was further thwarted by colonial accreditation requirements and a series of laws that emerged during the British occupation and the ensuing mandate. Gradually and in limited numbers, some women were afforded “subordinate ranks” under the British administration. When women of capital expressed interest in and mobilized their networks to gain access to the medical profession as physicians, limited admission into the local medical faculty became viable. Tactical aversions made professional pursuits difficult for segments of the population under study. Those who gained access to the medical profession navigated gendered occupational specialism that in turn shaped their professional trajectories.

“Why Don’t You Go to Nursing School?”

By: Liat Kozma, Benny Nuriely

Abstract: The article analyzes the gendered experience at Hebrew University Medical School in its first two decades, 1950–70. Contrary to earlier studies on women in medicine, which focused on immigrant doctors to late Ottoman and mandatory Palestine, gendering the future cadre of doctors in post-1948 Israel has not been discussed. Based on archival documents, newspapers of the period, and interviews with the school’s graduates, the article argues that the school maintained a consistent though informal quota policy, which also differentiated between country-born and immigrant students. It examines students’ interactions with the school, beginning with their decision to apply for medical school and going through the interview process, the experience of student life, and their attempts to balance medical school with marriage and motherhood.

Orientalism without Power? Chinese Female Ob-Gyns in Rural Algeria and Morocco in the Post-Mao Era

By: Dongxin Zou

Abstract: Sent by the Chinese government on medical missions, Chinese female ob-gyns have served in rural and small-town public hospitals in Algeria and Morocco for more than fifty years. Yet little is known about the medical encounters or how the ob-gyns perceived patients and their health cultures. Drawing on untapped Chinese medical-mission literature, this article shows that the ob-gyns have since the 1980s constructed certain images of North African women as an inferior other, either reckless biological reproducers or incompetent health providers. In their criticisms of reproductive practices and female professionalism, they viewed local health policies and institutions through the prisms of modern obstetrics and Chinese gender rhetoric and ultimately bolstered their professional status at home in China. The article also suggests that while the ob-gyns were not attached to a hard-power colonial state apparatus, they retained considerable situational power over their patients.

Journal of Peace Research (Volume 59, Issue 3)

Terrorism and emergency constitutions in the Muslim world

By: Christian Bjørnskov, Stefan Voigt

Abstract: Previous research has indicated that constitutionalized emergency provisions effectively constrain the behaviour of democratic governments subsequent to terrorist attacks. In this article, we ask if this is also true for autocratic governments. Are non-democratic governments equally subject to constitutionalized constraints regarding their reactions to emergencies and particularly to terrorist attacks? To answer the question, we analyse the behaviour of a specific group of predominantly autocratic governments that are particularly subject to frequent terrorist incidents, namely the states that are members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Employing data on terrorist activity from the Global Terrorism Database and constitutional data from the Index of Emergency Powers, we estimate the association between constitutionalized constraints and terrorist attacks in a dataset covering 48 member-states of the organization observed annually between 1970 and 2014. As hypothesized, we find that emergency constitutions that politically make it relatively cheap for governments to declare a state of emergency are more likely to be invoked. In addition, we find that governments are more likely to increase repression after terrorist events when the constitution allocates more discretionary power to the government in emergencies. Our evidence thus suggests that emergency constitutions also impact on the behaviour of largely autocratic governments.

Mediterranean Politics (Volume 27, Issue 2)

EU-Algeria (non)cooperation on migration: A tale of two fortresses

By: Federica Zardo, Chiara Loschi

Abstract: Despite the bilateral commitment to engage in ‘regular dialogue on issues related to mobility, migration and asylum’, EU incentives have failed in leveraging Algeria to secure cooperation notwithstanding seemingly converging interests. What explains the Algerian endless resistance to the EU’s pressure and incentives? This paper claims that a focus on the historical development of the Algerian security regime improves the understanding of its non-cooperative approach vis-à-vis the EU.

Fanning fears, winning praise: Egypt’s smart play on Europe’s apprehension of more undocumented immigration

By: Jan Claudius Völkel

Abstract: This article adds the case of Egypt to the themed section’s overall research interest, examining the extent to which the Egyptian government has reacted in its migration policies to incentives provided by the EU. It shows that Egypt’s 2016 ‘Anti-Smuggling Law’ (ASL), praised as a ‘milestone’, was crucial for the regime’s further power consolidation. Building on Tsourapas’s concept of ‘migration interdependence’, Egypt’s migration policy rather fulfils the purpose as ‘dramaturgical act’, aimed more at pleasing an international audience than improving migrants’ living conditions. Thus, the article also contributes to the widely debated ‘illiberal paradox’ in migration policies.

Syrian refugees in Jordan and their integration in the labour market: Jordanian migration diplomacy and EU incentives

By: Peter Seeberg

Abstract: Framing the analysis in Jordan’s foreign and security policy, this article discusses Jordanian migration diplomacy in relation to incentives offered by the EU. It is demonstrated that the unstable situation resulting from the long-lasting Syrian crisis has created a need for the Jordanian state to develop new political strategies, adjusting institutional policies and practices to the EU’s conditionalities regarding democratic progress and socio-economic reforms. The article takes its point of departure in the concept of migration diplomacy and bases its analysis of how the Jordanian government has developed its institutional flexibility on the theory of historical institutionalism.

Migration diplomacy in a de facto destination country: Morocco’s new intermestic migration policy and international socialization by/with the EU

By: Irene Fernández-Molina

Abstract: This article examines Morocco’s migration diplomacy with a focus on the New Migration Policy (NMP) it launched in 2013 as a destination country. It argues that the NMP serves the objectives of Moroccan foreign policy towards both Africa and the EU, as international socialization by/with the latter remains a primary driving force for the country’s migration policies. The main recent change in Morocco-EU socialization has been a return from norm-driven role playing to an overt exhibition of rational choice and a transactional attitude around migration and border control practices – while role playing has been reoriented towards Africa and the wider international community.

The dynamics of China’s attitude towards implementing the responsibility to protect in the Middle East and North Africa

By: Hongsong Liu

Abstract: China’s attitude towards the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) has evolved from resistance to acceptance with reservations. Having endorsed R2P, China reinterpreted the emerging norm and put forward four principles of implementing R2P, namely target state consent, regional consensus, non-coercive means or coercive means authorized by the UN Security Council, and no precedent-setting, which are followed when implementing R2P. This article explores China’s change in attitude towards R2P and its different attitude on different R2P-related issues in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) as the key target area of R2P, arguing that the combination of socialization mechanism and localization mechanism explains a series of China’s behaviours including its change of attitude towards R2P, reinterpretation of R2P and stance on implementing R2P on specific issues. Through examining the Darfur issue, the Libyan crisis and the Syrian crisis, the article demonstrates how China supports or opposes the implementation of R2P under the combined influence of socialization and localization.

Middle East Law and Governance (Volume 14, Issue 1)

Governing the covid-19 Pandemic in the Middle East and North Africa: Containment Measures as a Public Good

By: Kevin Koehler, Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl

Abstract: What determined how governments in the Middle East and North Africa reacted to the global covid-19 pandemic? We develop a theoretical argument based on the political costs of different policy options and assess its empirical relevance. Distinguishing between the immediate costs associated with decisive action and the potential costs of uncontrolled spread that are likely to accrue over the long term, we argue that leaders who have fewer incentives to provide public goods to stay in power will lock down later than their more constrained counterparts. We find empirical support for this argument in statistical analyses covering the 1 January – 30 November 2020 period using the Oxford covid-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) and our own original data on the timing of mosque closures and strict lockdowns across the region. We also illustrate our argument with a description of the response to the pandemic in Egypt.

Dyadic Analysis of Fragile Middle Eastern States and Humanitarian Implications of Restrictive covid-19 Policies

By: Daniel Habib, Naela Elmore, Seth Gulas, Nathan Ruhde, Daniel Mathew, Nicholas Parente

Abstract: The covid-19 pandemic has pressured governments to respond with restrictive and health resource-oriented policies to contain the spread of the virus. The aim of this paper is to assess differential policy implementation due to state fragility with a spatial scope of the Middle Eastern region. The policies implemented by the four strongest and six most fragile Middle Eastern countries were extracted from the CoronaNet Government Response Database and grouped into restrictive and resource-oriented categories. Clustering based on these categories informed dyadic analysis. Drawing from the Oxford Government Response Policy Tracker and covid-19 World Symptom Survey, we found that fragile states tended to be characterized by a higher proportion of restrictive policies, lower government stringency, and lower compliance. The results identify sectors that would benefit most from humanitarian aid and raise the issue of whether restrictions are disproportionately implemented due to covert political agendas or lack of political and economic power.

Testing Saudi State Capacity: A Study to Investigate How the Government Responded to the covid-19 Pandemic

By: Mamdouh A. Shouman, Abdulaziz S. Alkabaa

Abstract: This study aimed at testing Saudi state capacity in its response to the covid-19 pandemic. The model investigated the significant impact of different curfew levels (a measure of state capacity) on covid-19 cases across five main cities. We used a Negative Binomial regression model to study the association between the covid-19 cases and other independent variables that include curfew levels. Our regression results have tested Saudi state capacity in four different curfew levels, revealing that the Saudi government exhibited its ability to implement one curfew level that decreased covid-19 cases. This curfew level (four) was the most effective policy implementation of all levels that assessed state capacity but required more resources and manpower. Hence, the Saudi state has the capacity to implement its desired policies, however, it needs an increased number of resources and manpower to do that. These findings render comparative implications to gcc monarchies and other Arab countries.

Mapping Covid-19 Governance in Lebanon: Territories of Sectarianism and Solidarity

By: Mona Harb, Ahmad Gharbieh, Mona Fawaz, Luna Dayekh

Abstract: Many states, including Lebanon, have used the Covid-19 pandemic as an occasion to reassert their power and to consolidate their policing and repressive apparatuses. We are far from a seamless scenario, however. Rather than a mere reproduction of the sectarian political system, we argue in this paper that the governance of the pandemic in Lebanon reveals tensions between powerful political parties, weakened public agencies, as well as multiple solidarity groups with diverging aspirations, colliding over the imagined future of the country. Using various sources of information (broadcast, print and online news media, social media), we build a database of the types of actors and the categories of actions across locations, and analyze the territorial and political variations of the governance of the pandemic. The paper demonstrates that the Covid-19 response in Lebanon operates through ongoing negotiations over the national territory in which timid yet visible aspirations for a non-sectarian country confront sectarian territorialities through back-and-forth cycles.

‘We are in a Battle with the Virus’: Hamas, Hezbollah, and covid-19

By: Abdalhadi Alijla

Abstract: This article examines the response of two non-state actors, Hezbollah and Hamas, to the coronavirus pandemic in Lebanon and Palestine. It studies the patterns of governance, practicalities, leadership, and legitimacy both parties deployed during the Covid-19 crisis. It argues that non-state actors usually imitate states by trying to acquire legitimacy in such cases. The coronavirus was sectarianised, politicised, and used to gain external and local legitimacy by Hamas and Hezbollah, respectively. The success of non-state actors in managing the coronavirus pandemic was rooted in two factors: the existence of a pre-existing and well-developed welfare system, and the party’s capacity to mobilise its constituencies mainly through charismatic leadership. The paper is based on primary sources, including interviews, news articles, and social media.

Middle East Policy (Volume 29, Issue 1)

China's Approach to the Iran-Saudi Arabia Rivalry

By: Mohmad Waseem Malla

Abstract: This article critically examines the configurations of China's approach to the Middle East, in general, and the Iran-Saudi Arabia axis, in particular. China's traditional practice has been to secure its national interests in economic terms while maintaining a critical distance from the domestic affairs of its partner countries. But lately, with changing geopolitical dynamics in the region, the scope of Beijing's engagement with these states has transformed as well. Though the basic contours of the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia are geopolitical in nature, it is chiefly driven by sectarian and other identity markers, with the potential of dragging other countries to their respective sides. The article argues that, as China multiplies its regional engagements to ensure energy security for its rapidly expanding economy and international profile, the ever-changing geopolitical realities will likely make Beijing's political role inevitable and therefore preclude a balanced approach toward Iran and Saudi Arabia.

In with the New: China's Nuclear-Energy Diplomacy in the Middle East

By: Degang Sun, Haiyan Xu, Yichao Tu

Abstract: Nuclear energy, the new frontier of China's cooperation with the Middle East, carries both geoeconomic and geopolitical implications. The development of civil nuclear energy is conducive to the diversification of the energy structure of Middle Eastern countries, meets their increasing needs for electricity at home, and improves their seawater desalinization. Giving full play to its incremental advantage, China's diplomacy strives to expand the market share of its nuclear-power enterprises in the Middle East, elevate its image as a rising nuclear-energy power, and advance nuclear-energy cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran, Algeria, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Sudan through multilateral or bilateral mechanisms. These can be classified into three categories: in-depth cooperation, active participation, and preliminary exploration. Nuclear-energy diplomacy aims to expand political influence through civil nuclear activity. Its aim is to enrich the toolkit of China's Middle East diplomacy and is conducive to a multipolar world in terms of civil nuclear research, development, and industries.

The Regional-Supremacy Trap: Disorder in the Middle East

By: Seyed Masoud Mousavi Shafaee, Vali Golmohammadi

Abstract: This article analyzes the logic of recent instability and disorder in the Middle East. It offers two interrelated arguments. First, the region has turned into a battle zone in the aftermath of US retrenchment. The United States and other external powers refrained from direct engagement in shaping Middle Eastern order and, therefore, aspirant regional powers were prompted to redesign that order. Second, what makes instability and disorder a geopolitical feature of the Middle East is the “regional-supremacy trap,” the seduction of a power vacuum and a desire for regional hegemony, a trap that draws all influential actors into a series of endless and cumulative conflicts. According to our findings, there is a meaningful relationship between the instability and the regional power struggle for supremacy in the post-American Middle East. As there is no sign of cooperative mechanisms for shaping the regional order by the major Middle Eastern actors, the syndrome of disorder will continue for the foreseeable future.

A Middle East Cooperation and Security Process: Has the Time Come?

By: Peter Jones

Abstract: For many years, there has been discussion of the idea of creating an inclusive regional cooperation and security system in the Middle East. This discussion is gathering increased interest today as several events and trends have focused attention on the rapid changes in the region and how they may be dealt with. These include profound socioeconomic and political pressures in the region; the violent breakdown of governing authority in places like Syria and Yemen; the Iran nuclear issue; perceptions that the regional roles of major external powers, most notably the United States and China, may be changing; and the evolving relationship between Israel and certain Arab countries. This article outlines the ideas and concepts that arose from a multi-year series of studies on this issue by regional experts as to how such a system might be established and what its key provisions and structures might be. The article describes and proposes a model of an inclusive, multi-tiered regional process that will encourage regional dialogue on key social, economic, security, and political issues.

Cybersecurity in the GCC: From Economic Development to Geopolitical Controversy

By: Bassant Hassib, James Shires

Abstract: While the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are not alone in their increasing exposure to the negative side effects of greater digital dependency, their status as technological leaders—not just in the region, but also in the world—means that they are vulnerable to a variety of cybersecurity threats. This article examines the trajectory of cybersecurity in the GCC states, exploring the main threats, the role of the GCC states in regional and international governance mechanisms, and the tensions between steps to achieve a more secure digital space on the one hand, and the privacy and human-rights risks of widespread surveillance on the other. The article argues that cybersecurity in the GCC follows a clear trajectory: beginning with economic drivers for securing a digital economy, cybersecurity organizations and policies then become entangled in geopolitical controversies, from the sale of surveillance technologies to superpower rivalry over AI and 5G communications.

Middle East Pre-Existing Conditions: Regional Security after Covid-19

By: Tova C. Norlén

Abstract: This article analyzes the underlying human insecurities and changing geopolitical alliances in the Middle East during the past decade to assess the most likely short- and medium-term impacts of Covid-19 on the global security environment. In particular, it focuses on the “pre-existing conditions” for instability in the Middle East, and the opportunity that the pandemic might have to exacerbate them. The region will likely face a growing regional-security dilemma compounded by challenges that are now too familiar: the further entrenchment of political authoritarianism, violent sectarian conflicts, regional rivalries, and the radicalization and recruitment efforts by terrorist and extremist groups. While the pandemic has not led to a significant rise in terrorism and extremist violence, it has worsened fragility and accelerated economic decline. This has increased political instability, which, in turn, makes violence more likely. The civil wars in Syria and Yemen, continued threats from Salafi-Jihadi extremism, massive displacement, sectarianism, and rising inequalities between the rich and the extremely poor are to blame for such fragility. Given the lack of economic resilience and the significant fragility of many Arab states, as well as the availability of advanced military technology in the region, the resulting political, socioeconomic, humanitarian, and security challenges could be devastating.

Hezbollah in Syria: An Insurgent's Ideology, Interest, and Survival

By: Massaab Al-Aloosy

Abstract: Ideology and interest often contradict each other in the lives of individuals, organizations, and states, but the contradiction ceases when survival is at stake. This study demonstrates that even longstanding insurgencies undergo major shifts when they find it difficult to maintain ideological purity. While ideology plays a significant role for these insurgencies, context makes it imperative to be flexible and put interest first in fluid circumstances. This is certainly the case with Hezbollah. The group pronounced Israel its sole enemy from the start and mobilized its resources for the state's destruction. The Syrian civil war altered this perception. The fall of the regime constituted an existential threat for Hezbollah; therefore, it turned its guns toward the Syrian opposition to keep Bashar al-Assad in power.

Azerbaijan, Israel, and Iran: An Unlikely Triangle Shaping the Northern Middle East

By: Namig Abbasov, Emil A. Souleimanov

Abstract: Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, political commentators and students of international relations alike have been puzzled by an increasingly cordial relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan, a Muslim-majority republic in the South Caucasus. Indeed, the unfolding alliance of the Jewish state and a tiny, energy-rich, post-Soviet country sandwiched between Iran and Russia has been by many seen as an anomaly. Particularly puzzled have been constructivists and adepts of geopolitics for whom the shared Shiite identity of Azerbaijan and Iran pre-ordained a close relationship. In reality, Tehran's suspicions of Azerbaijan's economic rise, coupled with concerns over pan-Turkic sentiments spread through Iran's northwest, and Iran's own imperial nostalgia have exacerbated an adversarial relationship. Against this backdrop, Azerbaijan's efforts to counterbalance those of Iran and Russia in the Caspian-South Caucasus region have brought Baku to forge closer ties with Israel.

Rouhani's Africa Policy: Disengagement, 2013–21

By: Reza Bagheri, Eric Lob

Abstract: The Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI)’s relations with Africa declined to a considerable extent during Hassan Rouhani's presidency. Rouhani pursued a foreign policy that showed little interest in the continent and did not consider it a strategic partner. Some scholars argue this policy exclusively resulted from the IRI's regional involvement in Syria and Yemen, as well as its economic difficulties due to US sanctions. Using Rosenau's pre-theory model of foreign-policy analysis, this article holistically asserts that a combination of individual, societal, and systemic factors caused Rouhani and his administration to neglect Africa. At an individual level, these factors included Rouhani's preference to implement a westward-leaning foreign policy, differentiate himself from his predecessor, and repair Iran's regional and international image. Societally, Rouhani downgraded relations with Africa due to the popularity of his westward-leaning policy among his base of voters and supporters, alongside political factions and parties inside the government. Systemically, Rouhani disengaged from the continent in response to unfavorable, exogenous conditions, including the IRI's increased diplomatic and economic isolation by the United States, its intensified conflict with and pressure from regional rivals, and its rising challenges and setbacks in Africa.

Security Studies  (Volume 31, Issue 2)

The Efficacy of Airpower in Counterinsurgency

By: Christopher Newton, Colin Tucker

Abstract: Since 2001, the United States has relied upon air strikes in its global counterterrorism campaign against insurgencies throughout the world. With advances in air strike technology, public opinion growing increasingly intolerant of deployments of ground forces abroad, and the proliferation of terrorist groups around the world, the use of air strikes appears to be the future of US counterterrorism policy. This study tests the efficacy of air strikes as a counterinsurgency tool by geocoordinating US air strike data and merging it with three major databases on conflict events to assess whether air strikes influence the rate of insurgent attacks. Our analysis reveals that air strikes reduce insurgents’ capacity to carry out attacks over the long term. At the same time, air strikes carry a short-term, provocative effect on insurgent attacks when they result in civilian fatalities. Finally, there is some evidence that air strikes increase attack attempts, but these attempts are not always successful, nor directed toward government forces.

Insurgent Recruitment Practices and Combat Effectiveness in Civil War: The Black September Conflict in Jordan

By: Samuel H. Plapinger

Abstract: Why are some insurgent groups more effective in combat than others? The existing scholarship on insurgent behavior tells us little about the diverse performances of nonstate armed actors in conflict. In this article, I develop a framework to measure and explain insurgent combat effectiveness during civil war centered around the relative rigor of recruitment practices. Groups whose recruitment practices are consistent and comprehensive (what I call robust, as opposed to deficient) generate the uniform shared purpose, discipline, and interpersonal trust needed to fight effectively in combat. Drawing on 105 interviews with ex-combatants and archival research in Jordan, Lebanon, and the United States, I show how different recruitment practices account for variation in insurgent combat effectiveness during the Black September period of the Jordanian Civil War (1968–1971). The article’s theory and findings add to scholarship on civil wars, insurgent behavior, and military effectiveness, and inform operations and intelligence analysis, counterinsurgency, and conflict management and peacebuilding efforts.

Norm Diffusion through US Military Training in Tunisia

By: Sharan Grewal

Abstract: Not available

Studies in Conflict &Terrorism (Volume 45, Issues 3 & 4)

Can Mainstream Sunni Islam Counter the Islamic State? a Critique of Adis Duderija’s “The Salafi Worldview and the Hermeneutical Limits of Mainstream Sunni Critique of Salafi-Jihadism”

By: Alain Gabon

Abstract: Not available

The Industrial Organization of the Syrian Civil War

By: Ethan B. Kapstein, David Ribar

Abstract: The Syrian Civil War represents an extreme outlier in terms of the number of insurgent groups which have been engaged in the fighting. These groups have also been remarkably persistent over time, partly due to the fact that rebel in-fighting has been relatively contained. They have also targeted civilians far less than the Syrian Army. These stylized facts run counter to much of the existing literature on multi-party civil wars, which has emphasized the influence of the balance of power on group dynamics. In this article we instead draw upon balance of threat theory, along with insights from the economics of industrial organization, to understand insurgent behavior in the Syrian Civil War, based on a newly compiled dataset of rebel violence. Our research suggests that conflict scholars need to account for factors beyond the balance of power if they are to adequately explain inter-rebel dynamics.

Reexamining the Four Waves of Modern Terrorism: A Territorial Interpretation

By: Steven M. Radil, Jaume Castan Pinos

Abstract: Territory is a persistent concern in international politics but is unevenly explored in the terrorism literature. We argue that territory has salience for terrorist actors and apply our argument to Rapoport's influential “four waves” thesis of the modern history of terrorism. By examining the key ideologies and groups associated with each historical era, we find that territory was a crucial element to each wave even when it took on different forms. We conclude by calling for additional concern for territory in terrorism studies, which promises to yield new insights into pressing questions.

Terrorism and Political Violence (Volume 34, Issue 3)

Terror Risk Perception and Fear of Terror in Turkey: Predictors, Bases and Consequences

By: Tuba Gün Çınğı, Nadir Suğur

Abstract: This study was conducted in Ankara, Turkey, which has experienced a number of serious terrorist attacks in recent years. A mixed-methods research approach was used in this study and findings were based on 400 questionnaires and twenty in-depth interviews. This study tries to evaluate the risk perceptions of individuals, their fear of terror, and their associated reflections in daily life. It also attempts to determine the degree to which theories of fear of crime can explain risk perceptions and fear of terrorism. The results show that the perceived terror risk and the fear level are high. The Turkish case shows that theories of fear of crime fail to explain adequately the fear of terror.

The Oxymoron of a Benevolent Authoritarian Leadership: The Case of Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Hassan Nasrallah

By: Anastasia Filippidou

Abstract: Leadership entails both continuity and an ever-changing relationship between a number of factors, including the leader, the context, the followers, broader society and even the pace of change. Although the above elements are not identical in all scenarios, there are still certain transcending common features allowing to draw conclusions applicable to different situations. This article focuses on the leadership of radical political movements (RPMs) in volatile and crisis situations, and the role of this leadership in the transformation process from weak and fragmented communities to peaceful and viable ones. The article uses the case of Hezbollah to test the above ideas, and examines the motives behind Hezbollah’s infitah of opening up, and its Lebanonization, expressed in its ideology, political programs, and policies, leading to Hezbollah’s integration into mainstream political life, blurring the boundaries between legitimate and illegitimate politics. The research demonstrates the need for a constant balance of different and often contrasting leadership characteristics and for the adjustment of leadership styles to constantly changing situations. Lastly, the article focuses on the rigidity of state counter measures toward RPMs and their leadership, with particular emphasis on the resilience of what often appears to be outdated state counternarratives.

Sex and Terror: Is the Subordination of Women Associated with the Use of Terror?

By: Valerie M. Hudson, Kaylee B. Hodgson

Abstract: The overwhelming percentage of the perpetrators of terrorism are male: is this noteworthy, or not?  We believe that it is.  More specifically, we believe there is a complex mix of sex-linked grievance for men, sex-linked training for men, and sex-linked lack of voice for women that facilitates, and may even catalyze, the perpetration of terrorism. Without knowledge of those sex-linked pathways, we argue that efforts to counter terror are less effective than they might be. We first survey the literature on the causes of terrorism, as well as the literature linking inequality between the sexes to incidence of terrorism. After laying this foundation, we next contribute a theoretical framework linking the subordination of women to the incentivizing of specifically male engagement in terrorism, and then test that framework through aggregate statistical testing on a sample of 155 nations for a variety of non-state and state terrorism outcome variables. The subordination of women, as also mechanisms of marriage market obstruction including brideprice, prove highly significant and with notable effect sizes even after controlling for several alternative explanatory variables. Finally, we probe implications of our findings for efforts to counter terrorism and violent extremism.

The Middle East Journal (Volume 76, Issue 1)

State Weakness, al-Qa'ida, and Rebel Governance: Yemen from the Arab Spring until 2022

By: Marta Furlan

Abstract: As the Arab Spring arrived in Yemen, al-Qa'ida joined the insurgency, conquered territories, and governed them. Eleven years later, I aim to assess whether the conditions that led to the group's emergence as both insurgent and governor have changed. I argue that, while al-Qa'ida is weaker, Yemen remains deeply vulnerable with a government in exile, an ongoing civil war, and armed groups in control of extensive territory. In this context, a resurgence of al-Qa'ida cannot be excluded.

Revolutionary Decades: Yemeni National Memory, 1962–2012

By: Asher Orkaby

Abstract: How have perceptions of Yemen's 1962 revolution changed since the modern state's founding and how has the government attempted to control historical memory? A comparison of al-Thawra, the Yemeni republic's first modern newspaper, and a 40th anniversary conference in 2002 reveals how Yemen failed to reconcile the bloody legacy of its revolution. This failure allowed tensions — between tribes and the government and between regional factions — to undermine the revolutionary legacy, leading to President 'Ali 'Abdullah Salih's resignation in 2012 and the civil war in the ensuing years.

The Threat of North African Foreign Fighter Returnees: Myths and Realities

By: Djallil Lounnas

Abstract: North Africa is often perceived to be vulnerable to threats from returning jihadist fighters coming home from campaigns in Syria and Iraq, especially in the aftermath of the Islamic State organization's 2019 collapse. This article, however, argues that the danger posed to the Maghrib by foreign fighter returnees is less acute than predicted. The reasons for this diminished threat include the civil war in Libya, disaffection due to intra-jihadist infighting, and North African states' programs offering rehabilitative pathways to former radicals in exchange for cooperation.

Affluent and Well-Educated? Analyzing the Socioeconomic Backgrounds of Fallen Palestinian Islamist Militants

By: Erik Skare

Abstract: Existing literature argues that the militants and suicide bombers of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) come from relatively advantaged socioeconomic and educational backgrounds compared to the average Palestinian in the Occupied Palestinian Territories. Analyzing 2,448 martyr biographies from Hamas's military wing and PIJ from 1992 to 2012, I argue that these militants reflect Palestinian labor divisions and educational enrollment rates. There is thus little to suggest that Palestinian Islamist militants are recruited from any particular socioeconomic stratum within the wider population. I demonstrate that, instead, kinship and geographic clusters are more significant variables.

When Women Walk: Armed Groups and Women's Protest Participation during the Syrian Conflict

By: Victoria Gilbert

Abstract: This article draws upon a collection of hundreds of photos and videos of protests from Syria between 2012 and 2016 to explain the temporal and spatial variation in women's protest participation during the conflict. Where armed groups with conservative gender ideologies had the capacity to be involved in local politics, they were able to limit women's access to public spaces, including political protests. This article also responds to existing explanations for the absence of women from protests that focus on violence and social norms.