Dania Thafer, Creative Insecurity: Institutional Inertia and Youth Potential in the GCC (Oxford University Press and Hurst, 2023).
Jadaliyya (J): What made you write this book?
Dania Thafer (DT): The accelerating pace of innovation has been a defining theme in my research and professional journey, shaping how I understand and approach challenges in the Arab Gulf states. Innovation has not only transformed industries, economies, and societies globally but has emerged as a critical element of national security and sustainable development. For me, this realization underscores the boundless potential innovation brings: it unlocks new products, start-ups, industries, and—most importantly—opportunities to achieve true economic diversification.
In my work, I have seen firsthand how three seismic shifts—the youth bulge, the energy transition, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution—are poised to reshape the future of the Gulf. These changes have not only become central to my research but have deepened my commitment to understanding how the region can harness its greatest asset: its people.
Growing up between the Gulf and the United States and witnessing the newest generation emerge as the most educated in history, I have been particularly inspired by the power of youth. It is the young people in the Middle East who have driven societal transformation and redefined the possibilities for their nations. But their contributions must go beyond inspiration; they must become the center of economic reform plans. My research has made clear that youth represent both the greatest challenge and opportunity for the region. At this critical demographic moment, I see a unique chance for Gulf states to nurture this generation, unlocking a demographic dividend that can fuel economic productivity. Without innovation and targeted investments in human capital, however, this opportunity could turn into an economic and social challenge.
Similarly, the energy transition is no longer a distant idea; it has become a tangible part of Gulf economies’ realities. My work in this space has reaffirmed that transitioning to low-carbon economies requires not just technological shifts but deep societal, economic, and political commitment. From renewables and hydrogen to carbon capture and climate resilience, innovation-led development—driven by youth—is at the heart of this transformation. I have watched with optimism as GCC countries make net-zero pledges, recognizing that their future stability lies in balancing sustainability with economic diversification.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution is another critical turning point that has captivated me in my research journey. While the Gulf missed the economic boom of the Third Industrial Revolution, the current technological era—one of artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, and digital disruption—presents a second chance. Standing at the edge of this technological transformation, I see the GCC states as uniquely positioned to lead if they prioritize innovation. With a large youth population eager to contribute, the opportunities are vast, but only if governments invest in creating inclusive, transparent, and dynamic economies.
Throughout this journey, I have become deeply aware of the stakes: failure to integrate youth into this broader vision, or to navigate elite politics and structural inefficiencies, risks undermining the region's long-term security and progress. For Gulf states, balancing entrenched interests with bold reform is no longer optional—it is a matter of survival.
These themes—youth, energy, and innovation—are not just academic concepts for me; they are reflections of the immense potential I see in the Gulf. My work is driven by the belief that the region can rise to meet this moment, turning challenges into opportunities that will define its future for decades to come.
J: What particular topics, issues, and literatures does the book address?
DT: The themes addressed in my book engage with academic literature on innovation, state autonomy, and state-business relations, particularly in the context of the GCC states. The focus on state-driven initiatives to stoke innovation-led development as a means to address youth economic grievances aligns with debates on state efforts to drive economic reform. The introduction of the concept of creative insecurity highlights the institutional challenges confronting GCC states in their quest for successful innovation-led development. These challenges reflect structural barriers that hinder the realization of innovation.
The discussion also explores missed opportunities for achieving innovation within the GCC, underscoring the importance of institutional environments in enabling innovation. The analysis of state autonomy delves into the dynamics of reform, with a focus on state-business relations and their influence on private sector development. Special attention is paid to the ways these relationships impact social relations and the political economy of various social cleavages.
The themes further examine competing explanations of state-business relations, highlighting the different taxonomies of state structures and their implications for state autonomy in implementing reform.
Finally, the discussion addresses the relationship between state autonomy and state-led capitalism, laying out how these variables will be conceptualized. Variance in state autonomy within the GCC could be a defining factor when it comes to attaining the demographic dividend and could address the problem of creative insecurity in the Gulf states. However, there is a lack of research on how GCC economies fare with regards to states’ economic performance and their autonomy to conduct economic reform. Thus, this book seeks to understand the concept of state autonomy and how it may be affected by various state structures, societal forces, and institutions. The analysis underscores the critical role of these interconnected dynamics in shaping innovation, reform, and economic transformation.
To understand creative insecurity, I use Critical Political Economy (CPE) as a theoretical lens situated at the intersection of economic and security studies. CPE assesses both the economic and political spheres, with emphasis on security threats caused by the unequal division of wealth and power. It further explores how the inequality of power and wealth, and the role of private actors influencing these conditions, can also serve as a threat to the state. Fundamentally, CPE challenges the customary understandings of national security threats at the state level by identifying private corporations as both potential threats and potential providers of national security. It recognizes that authority can be exercised by private non-state actors that influence market forces, thereby obscuring the state’s autonomy to manage the security dynamics of the economy. Essentially, anything that threatens state autonomy to “narrow the range of policy choices available to the government of a state” and to “degrade the quality of life for the inhabitants of a state” can be categorized as a national security threat.
J: How does this book connect to and/or depart from your previous work?
DT: A new concept I introduce in this book is creative insecurity—a condition in which a state’s institutional ecosystem suppresses opportunities for innovation, to the extent that it causes economic and political vulnerabilities that threaten national security. In this context, creative insecurity can serve as a defining line between state success and failure. This differs from my previous work that focuses heavily on traditional security lenses viewing at a nation-state level and looks at traditional military-dominated concepts, energy security, and regional conflicts.
J: Who do you hope will read this book, and what sort of impact would you like it to have?
DT: As the first major study to examine how the surge in youthful human capital and the institutionalized dominance of the business elite in Gulf states affect innovation at a global and regional level, this book will be a useful tool to a diverse audience of policymakers, students, and scholars. The prospect of economic growth in the Gulf states affects players well beyond the region and raises important issues concerning future stability across the Middle East and its global repercussions. As Middle East studies departments across universities have been increasing Gulf studies courses, this book is readily adaptable for both undergraduate and graduate courses on a number of topics including political economy, comparative politics, economic development, and the politics of the Middle East. On a more practical policy level, I would like to promote youth employment, which is a major challenge for Middle Eastern countries that currently have the youngest populations in the world. Also, I hope to promote a deeper understanding of how to achieve innovation-led development which is critical for economic success and independent secure economies.
J: What other projects are you working on now?
DT: I am conducting research on the geopolitics of AI in the Gulf, exploring how emerging technologies are shaping power dynamics, regional alliances, and strategic competition. In parallel, I am examining the concept of middle powers and assessing how certain Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, align with this framework through their diplomatic initiatives, economic influence, and mediation roles. Additionally, my research focuses on the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) agenda in the Gulf, analyzing regional efforts to enhance women’s roles in leadership within security frameworks.
Excerpt from the book (from the Introduction, page 4)
This study addresses several interrelated scholarly debates, such as the concept of state autonomy and reform; the conglomeration of elites that shape private sector development; and different elements and classifications of developmental states as they pertain to the GCC. It evaluates how these factors affect innovation, the prospects for successfully achieving the demographic dividend, and long-term creative security. It also assesses how various levels of state-led capitalism and elite dominance hinder GCC governments in pursuing inclusive dynamic entrepreneurial strategies, and the extent to which their inability to achieve this goal affects their long-term national security. It will do so by applying a comparative institutional analysis of GCC state structures and state-society relations, with emphasis on Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain. The study’s goal is to identify differences between nations in state organization and connect these differences to variations in developmental outcomes (prospects of achieving innovation and the demographic dividend) and national security outcomes associated with creative insecurity (sustainable economic development and state longevity).